CASE 19 - Scattered convection over foothills


Microphysical scans 2115 - 0045 Z, 3h 30m





IOP status - This is during IOP#7 (see report). MCS development along Sonora/SInaloa favorable during this time, and a gulf surge was expected. MCSs did develop as predicted, however, no gulf surge was detected during the IOP.


TW#29 impacted S GOC early on 8/6/04, shifting winds from northeasterly to southeasterly.









Day 0 forecast discussion text



200 mb - model.ETA.200408070000.00_200mb_wnd.gif

500 mb - model.ETA.200408070000.00_500mb_wnd.gif

700 mb - model.ETA.200408070000.00_700mb_wnd.gif

850 mb - model.ETA.200408070000.00_850mb_wnd.gif


Mazatlan SkewT - ops.SkewT.200408062100.Mazatlan_MX.gif - ops.SkewT.200408070000.Mazatlan_MX.gif



EVENT SUMMARY: Scattered cellular activity along the SMO during the late afternoon / early evening. Cell motion is generally westward, which is consistent with 500 mb winds.


2224Z, GOES-10 Vis


24 h precipitation totals -





S-Pol log - spol_080604.txt - spol_080704.txt



2115 Z

Begin Microphysical Scanning, Switching to MicroFar135: Cells firing over the SMO. Centered sector scans on 60 deg.


2115Z, Base reflectivity


2115 - 2300 Z

Taking RHIs of stronger cells: Set to 50.5 and 46 deg at 2115Z, to 98.6 deg at 2210Z, to 97.8 deg at 2222Z, to 100.5 deg at 2250Z. The cell at 97.8 deg / 2222Z has 50 dBZ core.


2215Z, Base reflectivity


2330 Z

Stratiform region to the SE of cells not being completely captured by sectors - recentering on 75 deg and setting RHI to 103.8.


2330Z, Base reflectivity


2345 Z

RHI at 94.5degrees through bright-band.


Base reflectivity


0045 Z

End Microphysical Scanning, Switching to ClimoFar: Cell activity waning.